Mirroring everything else that should have been unexpected in 2016 - Trump's successful capture of the Republican nomination, Sanders' nearly successful insurgency in the Democratic primaries, Johnson's relative strength as the Libertarian nominee, and so on - Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin's rise as a potential spoiler in Utah has thrown the predictability of election day into the wind.
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| Evan McMullin likely wont become President on Nov. 8th, but his performance in Utah could send shock waves through the conservative and Republican establishments. |
Prompted by the inability of the #NeverTrump movement to draft a conservative to challenge Trump and Clinton, McMullin picked up the sacrificial baton, albeit late in the process, and was able to find his way onto the ballot in several states, mostly in the west.
His campaign, for all intents and purposes, has been centrally focused on his home state of Utah, where he and a large percentage of the state's Mormon population have deeply held reservations about Trump's character and ideology, both of which fly in the face of the church's principles.
Now, following months of low-key campaigning and the publication of Trump's troubling remarks on sexual assault, McMullin is either leading or within striking distance in the Beehive State according to a slew of recent polls. McMullin's bid is further aided by the abandonment of the GOP ticket by most of Utah's political class.
Besides the historical rarity of an Independent presidential candidate winning his home state in protest (this hasn't happened since 1924), McMullin's potential victory in Utah would mark the first time since 1964 that the traditionally Republican state would buck the party line. For comparison, Mitt Romney won the state by 48% in 2012.
Although the final results of election day are largely a formality at this point, as Trump is trailing Clinton by a healthy margin nationwide, the outcome in Utah is of particular interest not only because of the historical implications entailed in a potential McMullin victory, but the shock waves that will be felt throughout the conservative and Republican establishments if even Utah has had enough with the GOP.
While it is true the media and pollsters are having a field day with Trump's embarrassing level of support in one of the reddest states in America, it is also a revolt of sorts by the most traditionalist bloc within the Republican Party against the nomination of an individual who is barely recognizable as a member of the party, let alone an adherent of conservative principles.
With only two weeks until election day, keep abuzz of the Beehive State... The results may be very consequential.
