Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Sanders Surging in Early States


With under three weeks to go until the Iowa Caucuses, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders is surging in recent polling against his Democratic Party counterparts. 

Only trailing former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 0.2% among Hawkeye State Democrats according to Real Clear Politics, the self proclaimed socialist is performing at his best in the state against Mrs. Clinton since September 21st, 2015.

The timing couldn't be better for the Brooklyn native, who has lead two of the last three polls commissioned in Iowa. Sanders are also seen his polling rise in New Hampshire, with a pair of recent surveys showing him ahead of Clinton by double digit margins. 

This has prompted a series of wide-ranging attacks against Sanders by Clinton and her surrogates, but the quirky independent from Vermont has thus far withstood them, stymieing the Clinton machine in the process. 

However, in the expected firewall of South Carolina, Clinton is currently cruising over her one-time U.S. Senate colleague by 40%, while she maintains an approximate 8.6% advantage nationally. 

Democrats will head out to caucus in Iowa on February 1st and vote in New Hampshire on February 9th.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Why Gary Johnson Matters

Johnson announced this week on Fox Business that
he is seeking the 2016 Libertarian Party nomination.
Gary Johnson, the former Republican Governor of New Mexico and 2012 Libertarian Party presidential nominee, announced earlier this week that he is again seeking the nation's third largest party's support for president. 

Initially seeking the GOP nomination last time around, Johnson ended up running under the Libertarian banner, where he set a record for most votes received by a member of the party: 1,275,000 votes. He was on the ballot in 48 states and the District of Columbia. 

Although a milestone for the Libertarian Party, Johnson's third place finish was far behind the 125 million combined votes that President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney received. Johnson has told the press that, "I was really disappointed with that outcome."

However, the 2016 presidential election is shaping up to be anything but normal. With Donald Trump still leading the polls on the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton all but assured the Democratic nomination, the possibility for a third party candidate to play spoiler has never been higher.

More Americans identify as politically independent than ever before, but the real cause for concern to both major parties is the willingness among their leading candidates to embrace the possibility of running third party if they don't receive their party's nomination. 

This has been true of Donald Trump and Ben Carson in the GOP, as well as Jim Webb and Bernie Sanders on the Democrat side. (Sanders has said that he will support Hillary Clinton, but millions of his supporters have advocated for a third party bid if he fails to capture the nomination)

So where does Gary Johnson fit into this scenario? 

Libertarians, more so than other ideologies, have the greatest appeal to large swathes of voters in both the Democratic and Republican Parties, with their fiscal conservatism and small government bonafides appealing to the Republican faithful mixed in with a blend of social liberalism and non-interventionist policies that most Democrats can find palatable. 

1,275,000 million votes known quantity.
Presuming Trump and Clinton capture their respective party's nominations, this sets Johnson up to perfectly appeal to tens of millions of voters that want nothing to do with either candidate. Furthermore, with the growing influence of social media on the political landscape, the need for vast sums of money becomes more irrelevant for a known quantity. Like Johnson.

We're still four months away from the Libertarian Party National Convention, where Johnson will face a challenge from spamware developer John McAfee, and anything can happen on the Republican side, but the possibility for a third party spoiler is definitely something worth watching as we approach November. 

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

O'Malley Event Draws One Voter in Snowy Iowa

   
Snowy weather conditions forced several presidential candidates, including Governor Christie Christie and Senator Marco Rubio, to cancel their campaign appearances in Iowa on Monday afternoon. Martin O'Malley, however, stayed the course.
Photo by Sarah Beckman

Wrapping up a slew of events, the former Maryland Governor's final stop of the day in Tama, Iowa, was a little personal as only a single voter braved the weather conditions to come out and meet him. 

Self-identifying only as "Kenneth," the gentlemen said that he believes O'Malley is the most experienced of the three candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, but he stopped short of committing to the fledgling candidate's campaign, even after the one-on-one town hall.

Often overshadowed by the former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders at the debates and in polling, O'Malley has struggled to chart a successful course in the primary thus far. Real Clear Politics has O'Malley's support at 5.7% in Iowa.


Saturday, December 26, 2015

25 Hours in New Hampshire


After weeks of fundraising and planning, I was recently able to cover a series of campaign events in New Hampshire with a pair of politically inclined friends, during which I learned a lot about myself and about covering politics on the national stage. 

The opposite of Hunter S. Thompson's "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72," our journalistic entourage had the opportunity to either engage with or listen to Senator Lindsey Graham, Governor Chris Christie, former Governor Jeb Bush, and Doctor Ben Carson at four events in twenty-five hours on the ground last weekend in New Hampshire, the home of the first presidential primary in the nation. 

With a growing sense of urgency, each candidate entered his respective event with a mission: Graham was looking for one final hope as his campaign neared death, Christie was looking to make the most of his new found momentum, Bush was trying to shake the presence of Donald Trump, and Carson was trying to keep himself in the top tier with safe, non-politically threatening platitudes. 

I was simply trying to take it all in. Hailing from a culturally remote county in Upstate New York, where few politicians of prominence dare step foot in, it was a form of culture shock to see how thousands of voters just seemingly interacted with men trying to become the next Commander in Chief, much in the same fashion as my neighbors will go to see a new, flavor of the week country band. 

Originally intending to cover the Democratic debate between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Senator Bernie Sanders, and former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, but unable to secure a press pass due to my status as a freelance reporter, I found no lack of political events to attend in the Granite State, as mid-afternoon town halls are considered entertainment to the state's electorate. 
New Hampshire voters love politics so much, they feel the need to vandalize bathroom stalls to make their points. 

Perhaps most surprising was the relative ease of access to most of the candidates. No security was present for Graham's town hall, despite him being joined by fellow Senator John McCain, Christie's event was secured by his New Jersey security, but he still freely interacted with the crowd, and Bush had a few local cops present. Carson, who has Secret Service protection, was heavily guarded. 

Furthermore, again colored by my history as a reporter in a small, rural county, I was surprised by the seemingly nonchalant relationship that existed between the local voters and the national press. It was as if both sides knew that they shared an unusual specter of power in the process of electing presidents, and as such, both held a grudging respect for one another. 

The candidates also allowed themselves to open up, as they pushed aside their polished television personas for genuine encounters. (some of the time, anyway) Graham was blunt, yet humorous, while Christie used his decades of public speaking experience to forge personal connections, and Bush worked his inner wonk in with a mix of sarcasm that plays off better in person than on the big screen. 

Carson was the only exception to this rule, and it might be unfair because he was separated from his audience by the Secret Service, but he came off more as a conservative talk show host than a candidate for the White House. Everything he said was in the context of a narrative and there were few human moments by the acclaimed neurosurgeon.

When all was said and done, after more than a full day's worth of news gathering and politicking, my one qualm with the trip is that New Hampshire is an exception to the rule in national politics. Candidates, journalists, and voters engage each other upfront and honestly, but respectfully, after relationships have been formed over months, and even years, but the same connection is almost nonexistent in Washington. 

Maybe that's why we all turn our attention to New Hampshire every four years, because it's the one place where people still care about the decency and the future of the country, and where average, everyday folks still hold a measure of power over their government, while journalists leave their press pass gravitas in the luggage and relearn the value of tried and true shoe leather reporting. 

Overall, considering the cost of my endeavor was approximately $250 (most of which was raised by friends and supporters), I'd say that the lessons I took home from New Hampshire were a real steal, especially since you can't put a price tag on experience, knowledge, and memories. 

Monday, December 21, 2015

Graham Ends Campaign After Final Hurrah


Photo by Timothy Knight
LONDONDERRY, NH - Senator Lindsey Graham has ended his long shot bid for the White House, but not before making one final sweep through New Hampshire this past weekend, where even then he was under no disillusionment about his standing in the polls.

Last Tuesday evening he was stuck in the undercard debate with the other also rans, and according to the last three surveys conducted in the Granite State, the South Caroline native and Air Force veteran had no measurable support with the party faithful.

Still, carrying on despite the inevitable demise of his candidacy for the White House, it didn't stop Mr. Graham from meeting with voters across the state on Saturday afternoon, even bringing along his longtime friend and political ally John McCain to campaign with him.

Photo by Timothy Knight
It was with this in mind, that Mr. Graham and Mr. McCain walked into the Londonderry Town Hall, greeted the fifty people that had come out to hear the candidate speak, and began to lay out their reasoning for why he should be the Republican nominee to challenge the (likely) Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton next fall.

Warning voters, "I am concerned more than I ever have been since the Cold War," McCain praised his Senate colleague as having more qualifications on foreign policy than any other candidate in the field. Hitting President Obama for leading from behind, McCain added: "the United States needs a leader."  

Mr. Graham responded to the 2008 GOP presidential nominee's remarks by quipping, "Trump can suck on that," before going through his background as being the son of a liquor store owner, being the first in his family to graduate from college, and being a proud Republican who believes there is a role for the government. 
Photo by Timothy Knight

Both of the Senator's opening statements and subsequent answers to town hall questioners were focused almost exclusively through the prism of foreign policy. Mr. Graham in particular was blunt in his language, refusing to parse his language when he described one audience member's suggestion that we seize Iraqi oil as the, "dumbest idea ever."

Proposing a 100,000 strong ground force comprised of Arab, European, and American soldiers to topple the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa, Graham theoretically asked, "How can you afford to sit on the sidelines," before offering his view that, "we can't afford to let evil reign unchecked."

However, with only hours until he would be standing on the presidential sidelines, Senator Graham conceded during a moment of clarity, "I'm in trouble if I can't make the main [debate] stage." After 176 campaign stops in New Hampshire, he ended his bid no closer to the main stage than when he began.

Carson Plays it Safe in Keene


KEENE, NH - Over two hundred and fifty voters filed into the Keene State College student center on Sunday afternoon to listen to Dr. Ben Carson's prescription for America. 
Photo by Timothy Knight

Rambling through a checklist of conservative bullet points, Carson's speech at times mimicked a talk show monologue more than a plea for support. He opened his remarks by calling the United States, "the most exceptional country in the world," and rarely deviated from generalizations or platitudes. 

One of only two Republican candidates in the race with Secret Service protection, there was a limit to the connection the neurosurgeon could make with the average voter, as a five foot barrier stood between the stage and the crowd, with a swarm of agents standing on guard in between. 

Chastising politics as "a lot of people who think success is about how loud you can talk," the soft spoken Carson sought to differentiate himself by stating, "my whole life has been about finding solutions." 
Photo by Timothy Knight
Although the candidate could recount his dreams, successes, and struggles as a child journeying from a poor family into becoming a famous physician, he relied heavily on making broad statements that elicited polite applause instead of making bold policy pronouncements. 

Hovering at 10% support in national polls, Dr. Carson has fallen to seventh place in New Hampshire despite being in second only a few weeks ago. At risk of becoming another flavor of the week candidate to falter, Carson largely played it safe on Sunday afternoon rather than rock the boat.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Bush Can't Shake Trump in Nashua


NASHUA, NH - After months of suffering through belittling attacks from GOP front runner Donald Trump, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was anything but low energy on the campaign trail Saturday night in Nashua. 

Making his case to a small crowd of seventy to eighty voters at Nashua Community College, Mr. Bush closed out a full day of campaigning by arguing for why he is the best choice to represent Republicans in next fall's presidential election.

Photo by Timothy Knight. 
"I hope you want someone who will bring a culture of change to Washington," quipped Mr. Bush in his opening remarks. He quickly added that the federal government needs to be a servant of the people and not their master. 

Coming off a difficult debate Tuesday night in Las Vegas, the former governor seemingly dismissed the party's front runner Mr. Trump as "not serious" during his remarks. 

However, just hours after the real estate mogul described Mr. Bush as "dumb as a rock," the son and brother of the last two elected GOP occupants of the Oval Office struggled to shrug off Mr. Trump's larger than life presence in the race. 

Bush even went so far as refer to his debate adversary in a majority of his answers, which acted as lightly dashed rebukes in the midst of outlining his policies. 

When asked at one point what steps he would take to address sex trafficking on a federal level, he parlayed the need to research the issue further as a sign of strength and humility, as opposed to, of course, Donald Trump.

Alluding to his counterparts in the Democratic Party, who were debating less then thirty minutes away in Manchester, Mr. Bush said, "they believe that life's not fair," while he contrasted it with his own point of view, "I believe life is a gift from God."

Released on Friday night, however, the latest Fox News poll has Donald Trump leading the GOP race with 39% of the vote. Governor Bush? He's stuck in the middle of the pack with only 3% support nationally, perhaps proving life just isn't fair after all.