Why Evan McMullin's Candidacy Matters

Mirroring everything else that should have been unexpected in 2016 - Trump's successful capture of the Republican nomination, Sanders' nearly successful insurgency in the Democratic primaries, Johnson's relative strength as the Libertarian nominee, and so on - Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin's rise as a potential spoiler in Utah has thrown the predictability of election day into the wind. 

Evan McMullin likely wont become President on Nov. 8th,
but his performance in Utah could send shock waves through
the conservative and Republican establishments.

Prompted by the inability of the #NeverTrump movement to draft a conservative to challenge Trump and Clinton, McMullin picked up the sacrificial baton, albeit late in the process, and was able to find his way onto the ballot in several states, mostly in the west. 

His campaign, for all intents and purposes, has been centrally focused on his home state of Utah, where he and a large percentage of the state's Mormon population have deeply held reservations about Trump's character and ideology, both of which fly in the face of the church's principles.

Now, following months of low-key campaigning and the publication of Trump's troubling remarks on sexual assault, McMullin is either leading or within striking distance in the Beehive State according to a slew of recent polls. McMullin's bid is further aided by the abandonment of the GOP ticket by most of Utah's political class. 

Besides the historical rarity of an Independent presidential candidate winning his home state in protest (this hasn't happened since 1924), McMullin's potential victory in Utah would mark the first time since 1964 that the traditionally Republican state would buck the party line. For comparison, Mitt Romney won the state by 48% in 2012. 

Although the final results of election day are largely a formality at this point, as Trump is trailing Clinton by a healthy margin nationwide, the outcome in Utah is of particular interest not only because of the historical implications entailed in a potential McMullin victory, but the shock waves that will be felt throughout the conservative and Republican establishments if even Utah has had enough with the GOP. 

While it is true the media and pollsters are having a field day with Trump's embarrassing level of support in one of the reddest states in America, it is also a revolt of sorts by the most traditionalist bloc within the Republican Party against the nomination of an individual who is barely recognizable as a member of the party, let alone an adherent of conservative principles. 

With only two weeks until election day, keep abuzz of the Beehive State... The results may be very consequential. 

Cruz Delivers "Moment of Conscience" Speech to RNC

And to those listening, please, don't stay home in November. Stand, and speak, and vote your conscience, vote for candidates up and down the ticket who you trust to defend our freedom and to be faithful to the Constitution. - U.S. Senator Ted Cruz

Following days of discord, disunity, and strife in the halls of the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, former  presidential candidate and conservative bomb thrower Ted Cruz lobbed a grenade at GOP attempts to rally the party faithful behind nominee Donald Trump in a fiery speech delivered on national television Wednesday evening. 

At first congratulating his bitter rival on securing the GOP nomination, Cruz carefully built a speech structured on his typical flair of conservative ideological bedrocks, before pulling the rug out from Trump in a brazen display of principled disloyalty when Cruz urged conservatives to "vote your conscience" just days after delegates had been denied that very option. 

Delegates roared in anger at Cruz, as thousands of attendees showered him with boos and chants for the Senator to endorse Trump. Cruz refused and finished his remarks as Trump entered the arena. 

Although later speakers tried to downplay the meaning of Cruz's "Moment of Conscience" speech, the intention of his remarks were known to everyone: conservative voters don't have to support the Trump candidacy if it violates their conscience, which throws a significant wrench into the convention's poorly executed attempts to unify the party. 

It will likely be said years from now that Cruz's remarks signified the beginning of the end for Donald Trump's presidential campaign, but it just might also be the start of the Texan's second bid for the highest office in the land.

French Decides Against Independent bid for Presidency

One week after it was revealed that Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol was actually attempting to draft National Review writer David French to launch an independent bid for the presidency, French announced his decision not to run this evening:

Here is a sentence I never thought I’d type: After days of prayer, reflection, and serious study of the possibilities, I am not going to run as an independent candidate for president of the United States.

French's potential candidacy took Twitter by a storm last week, as tens of thousands of people collectively asked "who?" 

While it is certainly true that any potential independent candidate, even a former governor and two time presidential contender like Mitt Romney, would probably suffer badly in a campaign against the major candidates, someone like French stood almost no chance of registering in the polls, let alone competing for votes.

None of this is to speak negatively of French, who is a respected constitutional attorney, writer, and Veteran of the Iraq War, but the whole idea of him being considered to face off against a former U.S. Secretary of State and a multi-billionaire, both of whom have near universal name recognition, was a desperate ploy from the get go.

However, it begs the question of - with no other candidates likely to emerge - will disaffected conservatives and independents rally behind Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson? With poll numbers hovering at or near the ten percent mark, his candidacy represents the best outlet for voters opposed to Clinton and Trump to have a voice. 

Why the "Draft Romney" Movement Persists

"I wanted my grandkids to see that I simply couldn't ignore what Mr. Trump was saying and doing, which revealed a character and temperament unfit for the leader of the free world" - Mitt Romney to the Wall Street Journal. 

To say that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney does not like Donald Trump would be a severe understatement. The GOP's 2012 presidential contender has spent the better part of this year fighting the real estate mogul's ascendancy in the Republican Party, which has included both personal appeals in nationally televised speeches and multiple endorsements in the now concluded primaries. 

With Trump officially claiming the nomination just this past week, it would seem that the two-time presidential candidate has been bested by the bombastic Trump. However, many speculate, that there might be a third national bid in store for Romney, who has the enthusiastic support of many bigwigs and grassroots conservatives to launch an independent candidacy for the White House.

Speculation that has been driven in just this past weekend by Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol, who tweeted on Sunday afternoon: "Just a heads up over this holiday weekend: There will be an independent candidate -- an impressive one, with a strong team and a strong chance." This follows calls by National Review writer David French and Resurgent publisher Erick Erickson for Romney to jump into the fray. 

Although there have been few, if any, indicators that Romney is planning an independent bid, he is likely the last chance that members of the dwindling #NeverTrump movement have to support a conservative Republican in the fall campaign. 

Support that has drawn backlash from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Hot Air, and even Trump himself. Taking breaks from campaigning, Trump has tweeted on multiple occasions that a Romney bid would result in conservatives losing control of the Supreme Court, which the Manhattan businessman's campaign manager said would result in the death of the Second Amendment. 

However, with Romney telling the Wall Street Journal, "others, including myself, believe our first priority should be to stand by our principles and if those are in conflict with the nominee, the principles come first," one has to believe that Romney views the temporary loss of power for conservatism as worth the price for preventing its complete destruction by Trump. 

This is why, despite the likelihood for failure if Romney were to enter the race, that a strong Draft Romney movement has taken heart with many conservatives, because in a time dominated by corrupt politicians and bankrupt businessmen, there stands a single individual who has survived both of those fields with his principles intact, and, newsflash: it isn't Donald Trump. 

Libertarians Nominate Johnson-Weld Ticket for President

Johnson received 1.3 million votes in 2012.

Four years after receiving more votes on the Libertarian Party line than any other presidential candidate before, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson was re-nominated as the party's 2016 nominee on Sunday afternoon.  

With large swathes of Democrats and Republicans unhappy with their nominees (presumed in the Democrats case), Johnson's third party bid has received substantial media coverage as his campaign has polled in the double digits in a three-way race against Clinton and Trump. 

Claiming the nomination on the second ballot with 55% of delegates in support, Johnson told the party faithful, "I will work as hard as I can to represent everybody in this room." He would later add, "I tell the truth. I'm not a liar." 

Johnson's biggest headache on Sunday might have been overcoming the formidable challenge from the assembled delegates in attendance to his preferred running-mate: former Massachusetts Governor William Weld.

Opposed for some of his more non-Libertarian policies while serving as the chief executive of Massachusetts in the nineties, Weld faced a barrage of criticism throughout the weekend from party members. Johnson opponent Austin Peterson would go so far as to call Weld a "horrible statist" at one point. 

Johnson and Weld address a press conference after
their ticket was nominated by national Libertarians

Still, despite a strong anti-Weld push at the end, Johnson got his man through with only 50.57% of delegates in support. This marks the first time that the Libertarian Party's national ticket has consisted of only governors. 

Thanks to the party's growing membership nationwide, the Libertarians Johnson-Weld ticket will be on the ballot in all fifty states. Shortly after Weld was narrowly nominated as his running-mate, Johnson tweeted out, "Time to get to work."

For national Libertarians seeking to exploit the negatives of the two major party's candidates, the first task has to be overcoming the draconian Commission on Presidential Debates 15% polling threshold for this fall's nationally televised debates. 

Super Delegates: Explained

Far from being Hillary Clinton's coronation, the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary have shown the strength of U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders' progressive brand of politics among the Democrat Party's faithful.

Losing Iowa by only a handful of precincts and winning New Hampshire by a twenty-two point margin, Sanders has succeeded in not only putting his vision for America on the map, but in forcing a fight for the party's nomination. 

However, when you take a look at the two candidate's delegate counts, Hillary Clinton is cruising to a comfortable 394-44 lead over her opponent despite barely winning one state and being crushed in the other.

Why is this?

Super delegates. 

The primary process is a race for delegates and - on the Democratic side - superdelegates. Of the 2,382 delegates needed to win the nomination, most are obtained in the primary voting or caucus process. But 712 of the delegates are superdelegates, and they are from the party establishment. They consist of governors, senators, members of the House, members of the Democratic National Committee and former presidents. They can choose whichever candidate they like.

Aside from the 32 delegates she won in Iowa and New Hampshire (4 less than Sanders), Clinton has received the support of over half of all super delegates nationwide, while the Vermont Independent has drawn only eight super delegates to his cause. 

Perhaps more disturbing, with 3,975 non-super delegates up for grabs in the remaining contests, Mrs. Clinton only has to win 51% of them to secure the nomination. Meanwhile, Mr. Sanders has a more difficult road ahead, as he would have to claim almost 59% of that same total to become the Democrat nominee.

The worst part about this process? The remaining 342 unpledged super delegates have the complete, unchecked power to make either candidate's road to Philadelphia that much easier. 

For instance, for every two dozen super delegates that Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Sanders were to add to their total delegate count would result in them needing approximately 1.5% less of the allocated delegates awarded by the remaining caucuses and primaries to win the race.

Or, in other words, for every super delegate either candidate receives, the fewer votes they need to obtain from the electorate. 

Talk about taking the word "democratic" out of the Democratic Party. 

Sanders Surging in Early States

With under three weeks to go until the Iowa Caucuses, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders is surging in recent polling against his Democratic Party counterparts. 

Only trailing former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 0.2% among Hawkeye State Democrats according to Real Clear Politics, the self proclaimed socialist is performing at his best in the state against Mrs. Clinton since September 21st, 2015.

The timing couldn't be better for the Brooklyn native, who has lead two of the last three polls commissioned in Iowa. Sanders are also seen his polling rise in New Hampshire, with a pair of recent surveys showing him ahead of Clinton by double digit margins. 

This has prompted a series of wide-ranging attacks against Sanders by Clinton and her surrogates, but the quirky independent from Vermont has thus far withstood them, stymieing the Clinton machine in the process. 

However, in the expected firewall of South Carolina, Clinton is currently cruising over her one-time U.S. Senate colleague by 40%, while she maintains an approximate 8.6% advantage nationally. 

Democrats will head out to caucus in Iowa on February 1st and vote in New Hampshire on February 9th.

Why Gary Johnson Matters

Johnson announced this week on Fox Business that
he is seeking the 2016 Libertarian Party nomination.

Gary Johnson, the former Republican Governor of New Mexico and 2012 Libertarian Party presidential nominee, announced earlier this week that he is again seeking the nation's third largest party's support for president. 

Initially seeking the GOP nomination last time around, Johnson ended up running under the Libertarian banner, where he set a record for most votes received by a member of the party: 1,275,000 votes. He was on the ballot in 48 states and the District of Columbia. 

Although a milestone for the Libertarian Party, Johnson's third place finish was far behind the 125 million combined votes that President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney received. Johnson has told the press that, "I was really disappointed with that outcome."

However, the 2016 presidential election is shaping up to be anything but normal. With Donald Trump still leading the polls on the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton all but assured the Democratic nomination, the possibility for a third party candidate to play spoiler has never been higher.

More Americans identify as politically independent than ever before, but the real cause for concern to both major parties is the willingness among their leading candidates to embrace the possibility of running third party if they don't receive their party's nomination. 

This has been true of Donald Trump and Ben Carson in the GOP, as well as Jim Webb and Bernie Sanders on the Democrat side. (Sanders has said that he will support Hillary Clinton, but millions of his supporters have advocated for a third party bid if he fails to capture the nomination)

So where does Gary Johnson fit into this scenario? 

Libertarians, more so than other ideologies, have the greatest appeal to large swathes of voters in both the Democratic and Republican Parties, with their fiscal conservatism and small government bonafides appealing to the Republican faithful mixed in with a blend of social liberalism and non-interventionist policies that most Democrats can find palatable. 

1,275,000 million votes known quantity.

Presuming Trump and Clinton capture their respective party's nominations, this sets Johnson up to perfectly appeal to tens of millions of voters that want nothing to do with either candidate. Furthermore, with the growing influence of social media on the political landscape, the need for vast sums of money becomes more irrelevant for a known quantity. Like Johnson.

We're still four months away from the Libertarian Party National Convention, where Johnson will face a challenge from spamware developer John McAfee, and anything can happen on the Republican side, but the possibility for a third party spoiler is definitely something worth watching as we approach November.