2020 Vision: Tulsi Gabbard

Author's note: This is part of a new series on Democratic candidates who have announced their candidacy for President. 

Tulsi Gabbard is an interesting candidate for higher office: she's relatively young being only in her late-thirties (she was first elected to the Hawaii House of Representatives in her early twenties), was originally born in the territory of American Samoa, and she is a Major in the Hawaii Army National Guard who previously served in the Iraq War. 

She also has a history of making brash decisions. Previously a Vice Chair of the powerful DNC, she resigned from that position to support U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders candidacy in 2016, while her more infamous moment occurred in 2017 when she met with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad without telling anyone in House leadership beforehand. 

Formally launching her candidacy for the White House on February 2nd, 2019, Ms. Gabbard immediately ran into Democratic headwinds over her previous opposition to gay marriage and LGBTQ issues as well as her unorthodox foreign policy views. Additionally, as Politico reported before her campaign even formally launched: 

"Tulsi Gabbard's presidential campaign hasn't officially launched yet but it's already melting down. Two-and-a-half weeks after the Hawaii Democrat told CNN she had decided to run for the White House-an announcement that even her own staff didn't know was coming, after weeks of debating the timing of the rollout- the 37-year-old congresswoman has struggled to contain the chaos."  

My favorite metaphor for Ms. Gabbard's campaign since announcing her candidacy might be this tidbit from a recent Des Moines Register article:

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard's first Iowa visit as a presidential candidate had a slow start: A flight delay in Chicago meant she had to cancel her first event in Des Moines with the Asian and Latino Coalition Saturday night. Her rescheduled event in the capital city just had 13 attendants.

Regardless of the rocky start, however, Ms. Gabbard does stand out as a prominent Democrat who associated herself significantly with the Sanders campaign in 2016, who is publicly opposed to the "Green New Deal" that is all the rage among some precincts on the Democratic side, and who is very vocally opposed to military adventurism abroad.

Although the road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue might remain best traveled from her congressional office in Washington, D.C. - especially if Mr. Sanders does indeed run for the oval office again - Ms. Gabbard is an interesting candidate to watch with a strong 2020 vision of being her party's nominee against incumbent President Donald J. Trump.

Super Delegates: Explained

Far from being Hillary Clinton's coronation, the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary have shown the strength of U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders' progressive brand of politics among the Democrat Party's faithful.

Losing Iowa by only a handful of precincts and winning New Hampshire by a twenty-two point margin, Sanders has succeeded in not only putting his vision for America on the map, but in forcing a fight for the party's nomination. 

However, when you take a look at the two candidate's delegate counts, Hillary Clinton is cruising to a comfortable 394-44 lead over her opponent despite barely winning one state and being crushed in the other.

Why is this?

Super delegates. 

The primary process is a race for delegates and - on the Democratic side - superdelegates. Of the 2,382 delegates needed to win the nomination, most are obtained in the primary voting or caucus process. But 712 of the delegates are superdelegates, and they are from the party establishment. They consist of governors, senators, members of the House, members of the Democratic National Committee and former presidents. They can choose whichever candidate they like.

Aside from the 32 delegates she won in Iowa and New Hampshire (4 less than Sanders), Clinton has received the support of over half of all super delegates nationwide, while the Vermont Independent has drawn only eight super delegates to his cause. 

Perhaps more disturbing, with 3,975 non-super delegates up for grabs in the remaining contests, Mrs. Clinton only has to win 51% of them to secure the nomination. Meanwhile, Mr. Sanders has a more difficult road ahead, as he would have to claim almost 59% of that same total to become the Democrat nominee.

The worst part about this process? The remaining 342 unpledged super delegates have the complete, unchecked power to make either candidate's road to Philadelphia that much easier. 

For instance, for every two dozen super delegates that Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Sanders were to add to their total delegate count would result in them needing approximately 1.5% less of the allocated delegates awarded by the remaining caucuses and primaries to win the race.

Or, in other words, for every super delegate either candidate receives, the fewer votes they need to obtain from the electorate. 

Talk about taking the word "democratic" out of the Democratic Party. 

Sanders Surging in Early States

With under three weeks to go until the Iowa Caucuses, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders is surging in recent polling against his Democratic Party counterparts. 

Only trailing former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 0.2% among Hawkeye State Democrats according to Real Clear Politics, the self proclaimed socialist is performing at his best in the state against Mrs. Clinton since September 21st, 2015.

The timing couldn't be better for the Brooklyn native, who has lead two of the last three polls commissioned in Iowa. Sanders are also seen his polling rise in New Hampshire, with a pair of recent surveys showing him ahead of Clinton by double digit margins. 

This has prompted a series of wide-ranging attacks against Sanders by Clinton and her surrogates, but the quirky independent from Vermont has thus far withstood them, stymieing the Clinton machine in the process. 

However, in the expected firewall of South Carolina, Clinton is currently cruising over her one-time U.S. Senate colleague by 40%, while she maintains an approximate 8.6% advantage nationally. 

Democrats will head out to caucus in Iowa on February 1st and vote in New Hampshire on February 9th.

O'Malley Event Draws One Voter in Snowy Iowa

   

Snowy weather conditions forced several presidential candidates, including Governor Christie Christie and Senator Marco Rubio, to cancel their campaign appearances in Iowa on Monday afternoon. Martin O'Malley, however, stayed the course.

Photo by Sarah Beckman

Wrapping up a slew of events, the former Maryland Governor's final stop of the day in Tama, Iowa, was a little personal as only a single voter braved the weather conditions to come out and meet him. 

Self-identifying only as "Kenneth," the gentlemen said that he believes O'Malley is the most experienced of the three candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, but he stopped short of committing to the fledgling candidate's campaign, even after the one-on-one town hall.

Often overshadowed by the former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders at the debates and in polling, O'Malley has struggled to chart a successful course in the primary thus far. Real Clear Politics has O'Malley's support at 5.7% in Iowa.

Biden Meets with Warren - Biden 2016 Odds Reach 60%

WASHINTON, DC - In the biggest move yet indicating that Vice-President Joe Biden is considering a run for the presidency, he met with U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren earlier today in his residence at the Naval Observatory. 

CNN has the story:

The meeting between Biden and Warren, confirmed by two people familiar with the session, is the biggest indication yet that Biden is feeling out influential Democrats before announcing his intentions.

Beloved by liberal Democrats, Warren decided to sit out a campaign of her own, but she has yet to formally endorse a candidate. In an interview on Friday, she told WBZ in Boston: "I don't think anyone has been anointed."

The vice president arrived in Washington shortly before lunchtime, even though his official schedule said he was planning to spend the weekend at his home in Delaware.

The news of Biden's meeting with Senator Warren has led to political investors giving the Vice-President a 60% chance of running at Predictit, the highest odds the former U.S. Senator from Delware has seen in weeks, if not months. 

Sanders Savages "Billionaire Class"

SOUTH CAROLINA - More so than any other candidate this election cycle, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders has fashioned himself into a one man opponent to the billionaire class, a message that has resonated with millions nationwide.

Coupling his sudden popularity and national appeal with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton's email scandal, Sanders has found himself rising in the polls steadily as he turns out record number crowds across the political landscape. 

USA Today had this to report from his latest stop:

Nearly 3,000 people answered Bernie Sanders' call for “political revolution” in Greenville on Friday, greeting the Democratic presidential candidate with repeated loud cheers and sign waving as he railed against “the billionaire class” at the TD Convention Center.

The senator from Vermont drew crowds ten times as big during appearances in major West Coast markets.

Still, his first stop in Greenville was one of the best attended presidential campaign events in the state this election cycle, Democrat or Republican.

The silver-haired populist pointed in the air and waved his hands as he belted out the message of class struggle that has made him the closest rival so far to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

Although emerging as the heartthrob of millennials and progressives, many in the Democrat Party (which Sanders, an Independent, is not apart of) are looking for Vice-President Biden to enter the fray to offer a main stream alternative to the former Secretary of State.

Webb: Super PACs are not Ethical

VIRGINIA - Former U.S. Senator James Webb believes that the influence of money in politics is corrupting the process and preventing his campaign from gaining traction in his bid for the Democratic nod.

Webb, a Vietnam War veteran and former Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan Administration, has staked out a fairly centrist platform in his campaign for his party's nomination, but has failed to impact the race significantly thus far. 

The former U.S. Senator told The Daily Progress:

"The challenge that we have right now in the current political environment, money dominates the process like it never has before," said Webb, who served as a U.S. senator from Virginia from 2007 until 2013, on MSNBC's "Morning Joe."

Webb said he was concerned with the buying power of Super PACs that are funneling most of the $388 million spent on the election this year into the race. Unlike the candidates, PACs are allowed to accept unlimited contributions in support of candidates from almost any source.

"I don’t believe that Super PACs are ethically supportable concepts," Webb said. "That money ... is affecting our ability to get out and talk."

Webb also cited reports that less than 400 families nationwide are responsible for almost half the money raised in the 2016 presidential campaign — an unprecedented concentration of political donors. 

Seen as more of a conservative than the rest of his party's contenders, Webb is the only candidate on his side of the aisle to have declared his opposition to the controversial Iran nuclear agreement that President Barack Obama has championed. 

Draft Biden 2016 Movement Grows

WASHINGTON, D.C. - With former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's polling numbers continuing to plummet, many Democrats are turning to Vice-President Joe Biden to salvage the party's panic that Clinton's email scandal may further sink her campaign. 

According to recent polls, Mrs. Clinton is struggling in several battleground states against several of her potential Republican challengers. This news, coupled with Vice-President Biden's recent moves signifying his interest in mounting a third bid for the White House, has sparked some to dust off the former longtime U.S. Senator's campaign gear. 

According to Fox News:

The Biden 2016 buzz keeps building -- and the vice president is doing little to tamp down the speculation -- as the leading group trying to coax the veep into the presidential race touts new poll numbers they say put him in prime position to run.

The Vice President Biden chatter kicked up again this week on two fronts, as Hillary Clinton continued to see her numbers suffer in the face of mounting revelations in her personal email controversy.

First, the pro-Biden group Draft Biden 2016 signed up longtime Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who helped President Obama win Florida in 2008 and 2012.

In addition to Mrs. Clinton, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders; former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley; former Rhode Island Govenor Lincoln Chaffee; and, former U.S. Senator James Webb, are currently seeking the Democratic nomination.