Sanders Surging in Early States

With under three weeks to go until the Iowa Caucuses, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders is surging in recent polling against his Democratic Party counterparts. 

Only trailing former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 0.2% among Hawkeye State Democrats according to Real Clear Politics, the self proclaimed socialist is performing at his best in the state against Mrs. Clinton since September 21st, 2015.

The timing couldn't be better for the Brooklyn native, who has lead two of the last three polls commissioned in Iowa. Sanders are also seen his polling rise in New Hampshire, with a pair of recent surveys showing him ahead of Clinton by double digit margins. 

This has prompted a series of wide-ranging attacks against Sanders by Clinton and her surrogates, but the quirky independent from Vermont has thus far withstood them, stymieing the Clinton machine in the process. 

However, in the expected firewall of South Carolina, Clinton is currently cruising over her one-time U.S. Senate colleague by 40%, while she maintains an approximate 8.6% advantage nationally. 

Democrats will head out to caucus in Iowa on February 1st and vote in New Hampshire on February 9th.

Why Gary Johnson Matters

Johnson announced this week on Fox Business that
he is seeking the 2016 Libertarian Party nomination.

Gary Johnson, the former Republican Governor of New Mexico and 2012 Libertarian Party presidential nominee, announced earlier this week that he is again seeking the nation's third largest party's support for president. 

Initially seeking the GOP nomination last time around, Johnson ended up running under the Libertarian banner, where he set a record for most votes received by a member of the party: 1,275,000 votes. He was on the ballot in 48 states and the District of Columbia. 

Although a milestone for the Libertarian Party, Johnson's third place finish was far behind the 125 million combined votes that President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney received. Johnson has told the press that, "I was really disappointed with that outcome."

However, the 2016 presidential election is shaping up to be anything but normal. With Donald Trump still leading the polls on the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton all but assured the Democratic nomination, the possibility for a third party candidate to play spoiler has never been higher.

More Americans identify as politically independent than ever before, but the real cause for concern to both major parties is the willingness among their leading candidates to embrace the possibility of running third party if they don't receive their party's nomination. 

This has been true of Donald Trump and Ben Carson in the GOP, as well as Jim Webb and Bernie Sanders on the Democrat side. (Sanders has said that he will support Hillary Clinton, but millions of his supporters have advocated for a third party bid if he fails to capture the nomination)

So where does Gary Johnson fit into this scenario? 

Libertarians, more so than other ideologies, have the greatest appeal to large swathes of voters in both the Democratic and Republican Parties, with their fiscal conservatism and small government bonafides appealing to the Republican faithful mixed in with a blend of social liberalism and non-interventionist policies that most Democrats can find palatable. 

1,275,000 million votes known quantity.

Presuming Trump and Clinton capture their respective party's nominations, this sets Johnson up to perfectly appeal to tens of millions of voters that want nothing to do with either candidate. Furthermore, with the growing influence of social media on the political landscape, the need for vast sums of money becomes more irrelevant for a known quantity. Like Johnson.

We're still four months away from the Libertarian Party National Convention, where Johnson will face a challenge from spamware developer John McAfee, and anything can happen on the Republican side, but the possibility for a third party spoiler is definitely something worth watching as we approach November.