Why the "Draft Romney" Movement Persists

"I wanted my grandkids to see that I simply couldn't ignore what Mr. Trump was saying and doing, which revealed a character and temperament unfit for the leader of the free world" - Mitt Romney to the Wall Street Journal. 

To say that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney does not like Donald Trump would be a severe understatement. The GOP's 2012 presidential contender has spent the better part of this year fighting the real estate mogul's ascendancy in the Republican Party, which has included both personal appeals in nationally televised speeches and multiple endorsements in the now concluded primaries. 

With Trump officially claiming the nomination just this past week, it would seem that the two-time presidential candidate has been bested by the bombastic Trump. However, many speculate, that there might be a third national bid in store for Romney, who has the enthusiastic support of many bigwigs and grassroots conservatives to launch an independent candidacy for the White House.

Speculation that has been driven in just this past weekend by Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol, who tweeted on Sunday afternoon: "Just a heads up over this holiday weekend: There will be an independent candidate -- an impressive one, with a strong team and a strong chance." This follows calls by National Review writer David French and Resurgent publisher Erick Erickson for Romney to jump into the fray. 

Although there have been few, if any, indicators that Romney is planning an independent bid, he is likely the last chance that members of the dwindling #NeverTrump movement have to support a conservative Republican in the fall campaign. 

Support that has drawn backlash from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Hot Air, and even Trump himself. Taking breaks from campaigning, Trump has tweeted on multiple occasions that a Romney bid would result in conservatives losing control of the Supreme Court, which the Manhattan businessman's campaign manager said would result in the death of the Second Amendment. 

However, with Romney telling the Wall Street Journal, "others, including myself, believe our first priority should be to stand by our principles and if those are in conflict with the nominee, the principles come first," one has to believe that Romney views the temporary loss of power for conservatism as worth the price for preventing its complete destruction by Trump. 

This is why, despite the likelihood for failure if Romney were to enter the race, that a strong Draft Romney movement has taken heart with many conservatives, because in a time dominated by corrupt politicians and bankrupt businessmen, there stands a single individual who has survived both of those fields with his principles intact, and, newsflash: it isn't Donald Trump. 

Libertarians Nominate Johnson-Weld Ticket for President

Johnson received 1.3 million votes in 2012.

Four years after receiving more votes on the Libertarian Party line than any other presidential candidate before, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson was re-nominated as the party's 2016 nominee on Sunday afternoon.  

With large swathes of Democrats and Republicans unhappy with their nominees (presumed in the Democrats case), Johnson's third party bid has received substantial media coverage as his campaign has polled in the double digits in a three-way race against Clinton and Trump. 

Claiming the nomination on the second ballot with 55% of delegates in support, Johnson told the party faithful, "I will work as hard as I can to represent everybody in this room." He would later add, "I tell the truth. I'm not a liar." 

Johnson's biggest headache on Sunday might have been overcoming the formidable challenge from the assembled delegates in attendance to his preferred running-mate: former Massachusetts Governor William Weld.

Opposed for some of his more non-Libertarian policies while serving as the chief executive of Massachusetts in the nineties, Weld faced a barrage of criticism throughout the weekend from party members. Johnson opponent Austin Peterson would go so far as to call Weld a "horrible statist" at one point. 

Johnson and Weld address a press conference after
their ticket was nominated by national Libertarians

Still, despite a strong anti-Weld push at the end, Johnson got his man through with only 50.57% of delegates in support. This marks the first time that the Libertarian Party's national ticket has consisted of only governors. 

Thanks to the party's growing membership nationwide, the Libertarians Johnson-Weld ticket will be on the ballot in all fifty states. Shortly after Weld was narrowly nominated as his running-mate, Johnson tweeted out, "Time to get to work."

For national Libertarians seeking to exploit the negatives of the two major party's candidates, the first task has to be overcoming the draconian Commission on Presidential Debates 15% polling threshold for this fall's nationally televised debates. 

Super Delegates: Explained

Far from being Hillary Clinton's coronation, the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary have shown the strength of U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders' progressive brand of politics among the Democrat Party's faithful.

Losing Iowa by only a handful of precincts and winning New Hampshire by a twenty-two point margin, Sanders has succeeded in not only putting his vision for America on the map, but in forcing a fight for the party's nomination. 

However, when you take a look at the two candidate's delegate counts, Hillary Clinton is cruising to a comfortable 394-44 lead over her opponent despite barely winning one state and being crushed in the other.

Why is this?

Super delegates. 

The primary process is a race for delegates and - on the Democratic side - superdelegates. Of the 2,382 delegates needed to win the nomination, most are obtained in the primary voting or caucus process. But 712 of the delegates are superdelegates, and they are from the party establishment. They consist of governors, senators, members of the House, members of the Democratic National Committee and former presidents. They can choose whichever candidate they like.

Aside from the 32 delegates she won in Iowa and New Hampshire (4 less than Sanders), Clinton has received the support of over half of all super delegates nationwide, while the Vermont Independent has drawn only eight super delegates to his cause. 

Perhaps more disturbing, with 3,975 non-super delegates up for grabs in the remaining contests, Mrs. Clinton only has to win 51% of them to secure the nomination. Meanwhile, Mr. Sanders has a more difficult road ahead, as he would have to claim almost 59% of that same total to become the Democrat nominee.

The worst part about this process? The remaining 342 unpledged super delegates have the complete, unchecked power to make either candidate's road to Philadelphia that much easier. 

For instance, for every two dozen super delegates that Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Sanders were to add to their total delegate count would result in them needing approximately 1.5% less of the allocated delegates awarded by the remaining caucuses and primaries to win the race.

Or, in other words, for every super delegate either candidate receives, the fewer votes they need to obtain from the electorate. 

Talk about taking the word "democratic" out of the Democratic Party. 

Sanders Surging in Early States

With under three weeks to go until the Iowa Caucuses, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders is surging in recent polling against his Democratic Party counterparts. 

Only trailing former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 0.2% among Hawkeye State Democrats according to Real Clear Politics, the self proclaimed socialist is performing at his best in the state against Mrs. Clinton since September 21st, 2015.

The timing couldn't be better for the Brooklyn native, who has lead two of the last three polls commissioned in Iowa. Sanders are also seen his polling rise in New Hampshire, with a pair of recent surveys showing him ahead of Clinton by double digit margins. 

This has prompted a series of wide-ranging attacks against Sanders by Clinton and her surrogates, but the quirky independent from Vermont has thus far withstood them, stymieing the Clinton machine in the process. 

However, in the expected firewall of South Carolina, Clinton is currently cruising over her one-time U.S. Senate colleague by 40%, while she maintains an approximate 8.6% advantage nationally. 

Democrats will head out to caucus in Iowa on February 1st and vote in New Hampshire on February 9th.

Why Gary Johnson Matters

Johnson announced this week on Fox Business that
he is seeking the 2016 Libertarian Party nomination.

Gary Johnson, the former Republican Governor of New Mexico and 2012 Libertarian Party presidential nominee, announced earlier this week that he is again seeking the nation's third largest party's support for president. 

Initially seeking the GOP nomination last time around, Johnson ended up running under the Libertarian banner, where he set a record for most votes received by a member of the party: 1,275,000 votes. He was on the ballot in 48 states and the District of Columbia. 

Although a milestone for the Libertarian Party, Johnson's third place finish was far behind the 125 million combined votes that President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney received. Johnson has told the press that, "I was really disappointed with that outcome."

However, the 2016 presidential election is shaping up to be anything but normal. With Donald Trump still leading the polls on the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton all but assured the Democratic nomination, the possibility for a third party candidate to play spoiler has never been higher.

More Americans identify as politically independent than ever before, but the real cause for concern to both major parties is the willingness among their leading candidates to embrace the possibility of running third party if they don't receive their party's nomination. 

This has been true of Donald Trump and Ben Carson in the GOP, as well as Jim Webb and Bernie Sanders on the Democrat side. (Sanders has said that he will support Hillary Clinton, but millions of his supporters have advocated for a third party bid if he fails to capture the nomination)

So where does Gary Johnson fit into this scenario? 

Libertarians, more so than other ideologies, have the greatest appeal to large swathes of voters in both the Democratic and Republican Parties, with their fiscal conservatism and small government bonafides appealing to the Republican faithful mixed in with a blend of social liberalism and non-interventionist policies that most Democrats can find palatable. 

1,275,000 million votes known quantity.

Presuming Trump and Clinton capture their respective party's nominations, this sets Johnson up to perfectly appeal to tens of millions of voters that want nothing to do with either candidate. Furthermore, with the growing influence of social media on the political landscape, the need for vast sums of money becomes more irrelevant for a known quantity. Like Johnson.

We're still four months away from the Libertarian Party National Convention, where Johnson will face a challenge from spamware developer John McAfee, and anything can happen on the Republican side, but the possibility for a third party spoiler is definitely something worth watching as we approach November. 

O'Malley Event Draws One Voter in Snowy Iowa

   

Snowy weather conditions forced several presidential candidates, including Governor Christie Christie and Senator Marco Rubio, to cancel their campaign appearances in Iowa on Monday afternoon. Martin O'Malley, however, stayed the course.

Photo by Sarah Beckman

Wrapping up a slew of events, the former Maryland Governor's final stop of the day in Tama, Iowa, was a little personal as only a single voter braved the weather conditions to come out and meet him. 

Self-identifying only as "Kenneth," the gentlemen said that he believes O'Malley is the most experienced of the three candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, but he stopped short of committing to the fledgling candidate's campaign, even after the one-on-one town hall.

Often overshadowed by the former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders at the debates and in polling, O'Malley has struggled to chart a successful course in the primary thus far. Real Clear Politics has O'Malley's support at 5.7% in Iowa.

25 Hours in New Hampshire

After weeks of fundraising and planning, I was recently able to cover a series of campaign events in New Hampshire with a pair of politically inclined friends, during which I learned a lot about myself and about covering politics on the national stage. 

The opposite of Hunter S. Thompson's "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72," our journalistic entourage had the opportunity to either engage with or listen to Senator Lindsey Graham, Governor Chris Christie, former Governor Jeb Bush, and Doctor Ben Carson at four events in twenty-five hours on the ground last weekend in New Hampshire, the home of the first presidential primary in the nation. 

With a growing sense of urgency, each candidate entered his respective event with a mission: Graham was looking for one final hope as his campaign neared death, Christie was looking to make the most of his new found momentum, Bush was trying to shake the presence of Donald Trump, and Carson was trying to keep himself in the top tier with safe, non-politically threatening platitudes. 

I was simply trying to take it all in. Hailing from a culturally remote county in Upstate New York, where few politicians of prominence dare step foot in, it was a form of culture shock to see how thousands of voters just seemingly interacted with men trying to become the next Commander in Chief, much in the same fashion as my neighbors will go to see a new, flavor of the week country band. 

Originally intending to cover the Democratic debate between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Senator Bernie Sanders, and former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, but unable to secure a press pass due to my status as a freelance reporter, I found no lack of political events to attend in the Granite State, as mid-afternoon town halls are considered entertainment to the state's electorate. 

New Hampshire voters love politics so much, they feel the need to vandalize bathroom stalls to make their points. 

Perhaps most surprising was the relative ease of access to most of the candidates. No security was present for Graham's town hall, despite him being joined by fellow Senator John McCain, Christie's event was secured by his New Jersey security, but he still freely interacted with the crowd, and Bush had a few local cops present. Carson, who has Secret Service protection, was heavily guarded. 

Furthermore, again colored by my history as a reporter in a small, rural county, I was surprised by the seemingly nonchalant relationship that existed between the local voters and the national press. It was as if both sides knew that they shared an unusual specter of power in the process of electing presidents, and as such, both held a grudging respect for one another. 

The candidates also allowed themselves to open up, as they pushed aside their polished television personas for genuine encounters. (some of the time, anyway) Graham was blunt, yet humorous, while Christie used his decades of public speaking experience to forge personal connections, and Bush worked his inner wonk in with a mix of sarcasm that plays off better in person than on the big screen. 

Carson was the only exception to this rule, and it might be unfair because he was separated from his audience by the Secret Service, but he came off more as a conservative talk show host than a candidate for the White House. Everything he said was in the context of a narrative and there were few human moments by the acclaimed neurosurgeon.

When all was said and done, after more than a full day's worth of news gathering and politicking, my one qualm with the trip is that New Hampshire is an exception to the rule in national politics. Candidates, journalists, and voters engage each other upfront and honestly, but respectfully, after relationships have been formed over months, and even years, but the same connection is almost nonexistent in Washington. 

Maybe that's why we all turn our attention to New Hampshire every four years, because it's the one place where people still care about the decency and the future of the country, and where average, everyday folks still hold a measure of power over their government, while journalists leave their press pass gravitas in the luggage and relearn the value of tried and true shoe leather reporting. 

Overall, considering the cost of my endeavor was approximately $250 (most of which was raised by friends and supporters), I'd say that the lessons I took home from New Hampshire were a real steal, especially since you can't put a price tag on experience, knowledge, and memories.